The post-COVID economy: evaluating the impact of virtual learning on the global economy

Online education has had access problems as well, and these access problems are witnessed in third world countries the most. (Image courtesy of Pixabay)

By Markandeya Karthik

Spurred on by the coronavirus pandemic, virtual learning has enabled flexibility in learning. This is evidenced by revelations in cross-border, international teaching. With the transition into online learning this year, Massive Online Open Course (MOOC) provider Coursera witnessed a surge in users between March and April, growing from 1.6 to 10.3 million users. The number of Indians who enrolled in Coursera classes jumped by 70%, showing an international appetite for connecting students with remote educators.

Asking those who have been directly involved with online learning, one gets the sense that educators and students alike are enjoying this new phase in education. A recent poll by the Times Higher Education group revealed that “72 per cent of the students surveyed were pleased with the online learning put in place by their institution to replace face-to-face teaching.”

However, regardless of these preferences for online learning, there are measurable drawbacks to online education. The aforementioned benefits only arise in circumstances where three key assumptions are met. First, online learning is as effective as traditional learning in terms of academic success. Second, online learning is accessible. Third, online learning is cost-effective. The sad reality is that in many cases, these assumptions are far-fetched.

The Wall Street Journal cited preliminary research from the Brookings Institute that US secondary school students are returning to classrooms with just 60% of learning gains relative to a typical school year. The summer slide - an interval of time usually seen in the summer months where students drop knowledge from previous years - started in March this year and disproportionately regressed older students at the most critical junctures of their secondary education.

In economics, a good education is something which is considered to be a “positive externality of consumption”. As students “consume” it, there are likely to be spillover effects on society, characterized by boosts in productivity and efficiency and an increase in employment. However, the criticisms of online learning indicate that, because education is not effective when it is done online, the same spillover effects won’t occur - and according to the American Economic Review, this can be detrimental to the economy in the long run.

Online education has had access problems as well, and these access problems are witnessed in third world countries the most. In Zimbabwe, just 21% of the population have access to the Internet. In addition to this, even for students who have access to the internet, the nation has a shortage of qualified teachers given that the demand for education significantly outweighs the number of individuals who pursue degrees in education, and little to no electricity in households. Rural populations are the primary stakeholders affected by this - While 70.4% of the urban population can access the Internet, only 23% of the rural population can access the internet. Even in first world countries like the UK, 56% of students are reported to not have access to the necessary technology to participate in online classes.

A lack of access to online education exacerbates educational inequality. On a domestic level, it heightens the gap between the wealthy and the poor. Students who study in Zimbabwe’s urban capital of Harare are more likely to have a better online learning experience than students living in the country’s Zaka region. The domestic inequality leads to economic inequality in the long-run. Students with the better education are able to access job opportunities and monetary success, while students without an education cannot. In simple terms, online education creates educational inequality on the domestic front, which contributes to a system of unequal distribution of income. Internationally, the significant gap in remote education between developing and developed countries changes the global access to knowledge and exaggerates the disparities between internet-accessible countries, and countries that struggle for this basic necessity.

And, infrastructure is underdeveloped and costly. “UK universities need to spend hundreds of millions of pounds to deliver degrees online”, according to The Guardian. The negative economic repercussion of this is that the entire university sector could take a severe hit. A recent report from the University and College Union (UCU) forecasts that the entire college sector in the UK could “lose around 2.5 billion pounds in the next academic year if pandemic induced online learning continues”.

Regardless of these drawbacks to online learning, we must acknowledge that it is here to stay for the foreseeable future. With the pandemic hitting countries in waves, the world needs adapting to the virtual education system. The issue of the effectiveness of online learning stems from a lack of experience with this technology. This is experience which will develop amongst both educators and learners with time. The key to making online learning a successful global endeavor by resolving accessibility and costs is in the hands of colleges and universities.

With students preferring the comfort of their homes to the physical campus - 52% of high school and college students in the US did not return to school in the fall - and the fact that universities are looking to widen their student bases - this year, “6 of the 8 Ivy Leagues, including Harvard and Yale, reported an uptick in acceptance rates for the Class of 2024”, according to CNBC - colleges have a lot to gain by lowering hurdles that were once intentionally restrictive by transitioning to online systems of learning.

And colleges can do this. Prior to the pandemic, colleges imposed acceptance rates due to a limited supply of seats. With online learning, this supply has increased, given that there is no cap to the number of people who can be in a Zoom or Google Hangout call.

In transitioning into online education systems, colleges would not only increase access to education for students from a multitude of backgrounds, but they would also cut their costs - The Guardian states that online learning nets colleges roughly $100 per credit hour versus $300 to 400 USD in traditional learning.

Why didn’t we do this earlier? Perhaps like the solar industry, despite the existence of solar panel technology for decades, the economic viability of solar panels has only recently hit an inflexion. It seems as though the world is at a similar turning point with online education.

Even though it required a crisis like the coronavirus to precipitate action and change the way universities sell access to their courses, it appears that it will definitely lead towards a more democratized world of education and information. How individual universities navigate the tumultuous waters of online education will determine who sinks or swims, but access to online education is only going to proliferate, and there’s no regression in sight - denying educational inequality in the long run.

This article was a winning entry in the 2021 Columbia University Economic Review High School essay contest

References (APA)

Batty, D., & Hall, R. (2020, April 25). No campus lectures and shut student bars: UK universities' £1bn struggle to move online. The Guardian. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/25/degrees-of-separation-can-universities-adapt-in-the-rush-to-online-learning

Hobbs, T., & Hawkins, L. (2020, June 5). The Results Are In for Remote Learning: It Didn't Work. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/schools-coronavirus-remote-learning-lockdown-tech-11591375078

McKie, A. (2020, April 7). Hepi poll: most university students want exams to continue online. Times Higher Education. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/hepi-poll-most-university-students-want-exams-continue-online#survey-answer

McPherson, M., & Bacow, L. (2015, September). Online Higher Education: Beyond the Hype Cycle. American Economic Association - American Economic Review. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.4.135

Razavi, L. (2020, May 27). 'Students like the flexibility': why online universities are here to stay. The Guardian. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/27/students-like-the-flexibility-why-online-universities-are-here-to-stay

Sellgren, K. (2020, June 16). Coronavirus: A third of pupils 'not engaging with work'. BBC. Retrieved November 30, 2020, from https://www.bbc.com/news/education-53049127

OpinionRenaissance CollegeDecember 15, 2021