Intuition vs. analysis: Making the right decisions

By Justin Lee

I have recently changed my mind about the power of the gut. Many people believe that intuition is an irreplaceable asset built through experience. I have come to realise that relying solely on your “gut” instincts is fundamentally flawed.

Trusting your gut is understandable, right? When faced with obstacles in life, people ought to put their faith in otherworldly powers. However, relying on these forces also has its risks. Although your gut has its place in making decisions, it should always be balanced with your intuition and your moral principles.

With that being said, anyone who believes that intuition is a reasonable substitute for logic and reasoning is making a fool of themselves.

When Laura Caveny from Ruler Analytics conducted a survey with over 115 business decision-makers on whether they make decisions based on gut feeling or statistics, 73% of the participants stated their preference for analytical approaches while making strategic decisions, showing a clear preference for data compared to their intuition. Numbers don’t lie. The same opinion was shared by Sebastian Schaeffer, the Co-founder and CTO of dofollow.io, stating, “I think if you're not relying on data, you're basically making decisions in the dark.”

It has also been discovered that those who act based on their gut feel more regret once the result is negative, something that we as humans have all been through. This emotional commitment to instinct makes people feel more regret more intensely than those who rely on rational approaches, as personal involvement in the decision-making process is higher.

While trusting your gut is only accurate by chance, dismissing intuition as a whole may be a mistake. Intuition is an inconsistent guide built on your past knowledge and experience; if you are doing something similar to your past experiences, it may help you decide. However, even with the chance of leading to good outcomes, there is also the chance of poor decisions and outcomes.

Some argue that intuition becomes more important in complex environments. Instead, however, the opposite is true. The more options you have to evaluate, the more variables you have to decide on. This results in increased challenges to face, hence, more of a reason why you should rely less on instinct and more on logic and analysis. The fact is, though our intuition appears to be a smart inner advisor, it can all too often guide us right into a pit of regrets.

Furthermore, this dependency on your gut can lead to negative consequences of the decision because cognitive biases mainly affect judgment. For example, confirmation biases lead to acceptance of information that only supports their beliefs, and there is an anchoring effect where people tend to make a judgment based on the first piece of information they are shown, which could be swayed by bias.

As a student, my gut feelings have often misled me, especially during important tests. In one particular math exam, I selected choice ‘A’ as the correct answer as I believed that the answer was a whole number rather than a fraction. This led me to believe that my answer was correct, disregarding the possibility of other possible answers. However, it was wrong. Very, very wrong. This personal experience of mine links to the research from Everyday Psych, addressing a common misconception that people frequently encounter, the “first instinct fallacy”. Research revealed that students have a misconception that it is better not to change their answers, while evidence indicates that changing their answers is the best approach. A review of over 33 studies demonstrated that students often moved from wrong to right when they changed their answers. This shows that every time one has to proceed with one's instincts, it becomes wrong, particularly in situations like exams.

When trusting your gut, many limitations can cause you to attain an undesired result. Thus, we need to rely more on logic and statistics. The use of data and logical thinking helps people make the correct decisions, while relying on gut instinct alone is doomed to fail you. Make the right decision. Logically.