The One Child Policy: an impending crisis or the cradle of Chinese economic growth?
By Thompson Kum
Background
The One-Child Policy refers to a set of laws first implemented in 1979 as a response to the rapid population growth experienced by China at the time, which government officials feared would lead to a demographic disaster. China has encouraged methods of birth control and family planning structures throughout its history — for example, when population growth began to outpace food supply in the 1950s, the government promoted birth control measures to avert disaster.
As the 1970s came to a close, China’s population rose to the benchmark of one billion. The Chinese government began considering potential ways to slow population growth and eventually settled with the One-Child Policy in 1979. It mandated that most couples inside the country could only have one offspring. Notably, this did not apply to all: exceptions were frequently provided, and local officials possessed discretion over how population limits were achieved.
Execution and implications
Multiple methods were employed to enforce this law, including various incentives and punishments across China. Those who complied received financial incentives and preferential employment opportunities, while those who violated the policy faced financial disadvantages like reduced medical insurance. Other times, draconian methods would be adopted, such as forced abortion and sterilisation.
China’s demographic and economic future currently faces lasting implications due to the One-Child policy. It currently sits at a fertility rate of 1.16 — by comparison, the United States’ 1.7 fertility rate is already deemed a significant problem.
This policy, in combination with China’s preference for male children, also created lasting effects in terms of gender. There was a notable increase in abortion of female foetuses, cases of infanticide of baby girls, and orphaned baby girls. Consequently, China’s gender ratio is now skewed towards males by over 4%.
With this, there is a ripple effect in marriages and births across China. With fewer women of childbearing age, fewer children will be born, further exacerbating the problem. At the same time, death rates are dropping, and the average Chinese citizen is living longer lives.
Estimates project that the share of adults aged 65 or older will rise from 12% to 26% by 2050. An implication of this is the shrinking workforce — China increasingly relies on children to uphold the workforce. This is further compounded by China's rapid urbanisation since 1980, with those inhabiting urban areas rising from 19% in 1980 to 60% in recent years. The country’s labour shortage is slowly proving to be an almost impossible problem with widespread impacts — for example, its pension system is struggling to support its growing ageing population.
Discussion
At the start, China’s One-Child Policy successfully reduced population growth. It may also have boosted the economy, as the working-age population didn’t have to support as many children, so productivity and savings increased. However, a case can also be made that economic growth often leads to a slower population growth rate. Thus, economic growth may have caused population growth to slow down rather than the other way around.
But one thing is clear. A shrinking labour force with a higher proportion of retirees poses immense challenges to China’s continued economic growth and social safety net.
In 2015, China reverted to a two-child policy and more generous parental tax deductions, family leave and housing subsidies for families. Furthermore, increased spending on reproductive health and childcare services has been prevalent to alleviate the labour shortage.
The Chinese Communist Party has also promoted flexible work hours and work-from-home options that cater to parents and has sought to lower academic pressure on the youth, which in turn relieved the financial load on parents — for example, private tutoring services were banned in 2021. The government hopes this financial security and manageability can encourage parents to bear additional children.
Further reading
What Was China's One-Child Policy? Its Implications and Importance