By Wisley Lau

It was the second to last day of my Chinese New Year Holiday. I hugged my mother and grandfather before taking my luggage with my father and grandmother, walking the rugged road into the Shenzhen Bay border checkpoint, the only way people can move in and out of Shenzhen and Hong Kong during the pandemic. A few months later in December 2021, after multiple incidents of reality dashing our family’s hopes, the government’s proposal for a free quarantine border passing just might become reality. Unfortunately, Omicron ruined everything. 

Starting from January, both Hong Kong and mainland China faced a surge of new COVID cases, particularly the Omicron variant, while the older Delta variant is a force to be reckoned with at the same time.  

For those who do not know what a zero-tolerance COVID policy is, it is what certain governments have done in the coronavirus pandemic to limit the spread of the virus. They enforce a strict quarantine policy by locking people into homes or hotel rooms for those coming abroad while conducting strict measures like mass COVID testing and locking down entire buildings to get the spread of the virus under maximum control. Under these circumstances, people are able to return to a more normal daily life than countries that do not enforce this type of policy.

After the coronavirus started to affect the daily lives of both mainlanders and Hong Kongers in early February 2020, most of the border was shut down, strict quarantine measures were set and the base for all the operations was the Shenzhen Bay Immigration checkpoint. In November 2020, a Return2hk travel scheme was initiated which allows returning Hong Kong citizens exempt from a 14-day quarantine as long as they have a COVID-negative result in the past 36 hours, a program expanded from only people living in the province of Guangdong to later the entire country. And to the moment of writing, except for a few minor policy changes, or the temporary blacklisting of cities and provinces that cannot enjoy the program’s luxury due to rising local cases, this has pretty much been the whole picture of a zero COVID immigration system.

Although going from mainland China to Hong Kong is convenient, going to the mainland from Hong Kong is anything but. After you have successfully received a slot on the Shenzhen customs’ website (which is harder to get than you think), and a COVID-negative certificate, you have to first pass the Hong Kong border before waiting hours as the mainland border agents slowly approve and check your material. Then, you are required to fill in countless “paperwork” throughout the journey, either digitally by your phone or on paper, writing everything from where you live in Shenzhen and Hong Kong to your personal ID. If the US tried the same tactic, freedom and privacy would be shouted more times than “Let’s Go, Brandon.” Over the border checkpoint, you are also forced to do a COVID test, which is repeated again on the second day, third day, fourth day, the seventh day, and thirteenth day of quarantine. After the complicated border crossing is complete, you will be able to communicate with the customs officials on where do you live and which area can they allocate a hotel for you. Sorry not sorry, you’re forced to swallow the pill when these same customs officials can send you to places like Dongguan or Dapeng if there are no hotel rooms in Shenzhen. But if you think the troubles are over after you arrived at the hotel, think again. Because in the day and the week after your release from quarantine, you need to go to a testing station to repeat a COVID test twice to make sure you have never caught the virus. It is THE toughest coronavirus restriction on the planet.

A zero tolerant COVID policy undoubtedly gives many benefits. The periods of viral infections will be shorter and much more in control, society and the economy can return back to normal quicker than other countries, and the human suffering caused by the virus will be dramatically lessened, which is all very good. However, the question is, for how long. It is without a doubt that the coronavirus will not magically disappear, and many countries like Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand have transitioned from a zero-tolerance policy to gradually opening up because they realized the virus is here to stay. 

Currently only China and Hong Kong are still committed to the policy and the prospect of opening up to the world is pretty much up in the air. Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and the head of a political consulting firm, labeled China’s policy the number 1 global risk of 2022, a sentiment shared by The Economist and Bloomberg Businessweek. 

​In the old days when the coronavirus was still in its original state, the zero-tolerance policy worked wonders as many people were able to travel inside the country during holidays, and it is boasted in Chinese media as a success of the system. In a system that requires mass mobilization, massive resources, and civil obedience, only China can replicate and see success. However, the walls start to crack with the emergence of the Delta variant. As some cities start locking down as part of their zero-tolerance policy, citizens in lockdown are already suffering consequences like lack of food, and that is before Omicron strikes. 

The Omicron variant is even more contagious than the Delta variant, adding on the threat of a longer incubation period (hiding period between the virus entering the body to actually being able to detect them), this virus poses a greater risk to the policy than ever before. The most important thing to do is to promote mass vaccination among the population, specifically the elderly. Even though the vaccination rate in both Hong Kong and China is relatively high, and recent proposals of a vaccine passport and restaurant ban encourage many (including the elderly) to take the jab, this still does not mean the coast is clear for now, and what will happen if both China and Hong Kong started opening up to the outside world.

Regardless of the future, the impact it has now on society is already damaging, especially in Hong Kong. 

First of all, there are many families who have relatives living on either side of the fence. Due to the strict rules, many were separated and the only way left for these families to see each other’s faces in person is through barbed wire and fences across the border. 

Secondly, Hong Kong’s focus as a tertiary industry has been rocked during the pandemic. Not only do places like Sheung Shui and Fan Ling, frequent places for parallel traders in the past who buy items like baby milk powder in Hong Kong then sell them in the mainland, have seen businesses shut down and unemployment rise. Places that were busy pre-COVID are almost deserted - if you have ever walked in Tsim Tsa Tsui or Causeway Bay. Not only that, the economy has and is still taking a beating due to the incredibly strict rules. Many individuals who have worked in the city are now leaving while companies are hatching plans to move away from the city both due to the COVID restrictions and the National Security Law. 

Finally, the population is sick and tired of the status quo. Pandemic fatigue refers to many citizens starting to give up on the virus due to economic anxiety or just had enough of continuing in this stage of the pandemic, with the recent revelations of top officials participating in a birthday party with no masks and social distancing, the case for government promotion will be harder than before.

Where do we go from here? After both Hong Kong and China have weathered their own COVID waves, they need to open up the borders as soon as possible (you know, with all the compatriot messaging from the Chinese and Hong Kong government, adding on to the constant promotions about how the Greater Bay will reinvigorate the economy once Hong Kong is able to connect with the mainland sort of talking points), while at the same time figuring out how to slowly get rid of the zero-tolerance policy. Currently, the most effective way to reopen to the world while not causing a massive burden to hospitals and medical staff in the future is to vaccinate the masses. So if you still have not yet received the coronavirus vaccine and you are eligible to, get a jab in your arm now!

For most of coronavirus history, the zero-tolerance policy has proven to be a success. Now the future is up in the air, and it is up to competent lawmakers and politicians to listen to accurate scientific advice by scientists and medical professionals to make the landing soft.